Welcome to the post-American Middle East.
That’s the emphatic message Iran, Saudi Arabia and their eager proxy China wanted to send to Washington with last Friday’s Beijing-brokered announcement of a rapprochement between rival Muslim powers in the region.
Why did we write this?
The United States has long been an outsider in the Middle East. Now China is asserting itself there, stealing Washington’s diplomatic thunder. What does this mean:
Iran appears to have abandoned any intention of abandoning its nuclear weapons ambitions and has cast its lot with China.
The Saudis are positioning themselves as a regional power increasingly independent of Washington.
And for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the Iran-Saudi Arabia deal is part of a larger political vision. China will eventually replace the United States as the world’s leading power, using its economic influence to expand its financial, diplomatic, and military footprints around the world. .
America is deliberately retreating from its decades-long role as the leading foreign actor in Middle East affairs, focusing its attention on the challenge posed by China. And China, meanwhile, has focused on the Middle East.
How can Washington respond to these developments? While President Joe Biden may not want to further reduce the US regional presence, he will focus more broadly on China’s challenges to America and its allies’ interests, hoping that Washington and Beijing can stabilize their inevitably competitive relationship.
Welcome to the post-American Middle East.
That’s the emphatic message Iran, Saudi Arabia and their eager proxy China wanted to send to Washington last Friday with the announcement of a rapprochement between rival Muslim powers in the region.
But America’s retreat from its decades-long role as the leading foreign actor in Middle East affairs was a deliberate choice, prompted by a number of factors, most notably the disastrous aftermath of the US-led invasion of Iraq that began two decades ago. week
Why did we write this?
The United States has long been an outsider in the Middle East. Now China is asserting itself there, stealing Washington’s diplomatic thunder. What does this mean:
And the irony of China’s diplomatic progress in the Middle East is that it may prevent the US from further ceding the considerable diplomatic and military weight it still has in the region.
That’s because the deal is not about what it will mean for Iran-Saudi relations. That’s what the agreement says about the interests and motivations of each of the deal makers, as well as long-term US interests in the Middle East and beyond.
First, Iran. Closer than ever to building a nuclear bomb, Tehran appears to have finally abandoned any idea of ​​a renewed deal with Washington to ease sanctions in exchange for the return of nuclear restrictions. Iran’s leaders cast their lot with China.
Next: Saudi Arabia. Although still dependent on the US for security, the Saudis are positioning themselves as a major regional power that is increasingly independent of Washington. The trend accelerated during the reign actually ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman amid US criticism of Saudi Arabia’s human rights violations. Riyadh is developing closer ties with Moscow and now, more broadly, with Beijing.
The base, however, is China.
For President Xi Jinping, the Iran-Saudi deal is part of a larger political vision and a prime example of how he hopes to achieve it.
The vision is that China will eventually replace the United States as the world’s leading power. The means to achieve it. Leverage China’s economic influence to expand its financial, diplomatic and military footprints around the world.
The Middle East deal also highlights a key pillar of that approach. Unlike the United States, China assures its partners that “domestic” issues such as human rights have nothing to do with its proliferation and alliances.
And while it is still too early to talk about a “post-American” Middle East, Washington’s waning influence and Beijing’s growing authority are clear.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters
Until the beginning of this century, America was indisputably the key international power in the region.
It maintains strong political, diplomatic and military ties, primarily with Israel, but also with Egypt and Jordan. And, yes, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries from Iran.
But his role as a mediator in the Arab-Israeli dispute has diminished, as have the prospects for a compromise between the two states to resolve Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians.
The Iraq War sapped America’s appetite for direct military involvement. This became inescapably clear during the Syrian civil war a decade later. President Barack Obama backed away from his “red line” insistence that the United States would intervene if President Bashar al-Assad deployed chemical weapons, paving the way for Russian President Vladimir Putin to get involved.
At the same time, shale oil helped free America from dependence on imports from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. And while still committed to protecting Gulf Arab security against Iran, the US sought a diplomatic response to Tehran’s nuclear threat. The result was a nuclear deal that was struck despite deep reservations from US partners in the region.
The overall message from the accord was that Washington is not the engaged, reliable ally it once was. Instead, in accordance with what has been called the “pivot to Asia,” the US has focused on China.
The problem facing Washington now is China’s focus on the Middle East.
As China expands its Belt and Road Initiative to build infrastructure projects in the developing world, it has made countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia key partners. Where the Saudis once shipped their oil to the West, today their biggest customer is China. The same applies to Iran, which is prohibited by sanctions from selling its oil elsewhere.
China clearly hopes that these economic ties will pave the way for an eventual military presence. a Chinese port in Djibouti at the gateway to the Red Sea became the site of a naval facility in 2017. Beijing has also invested in port facilities. The Arab countries of the Persian Gulf: Oman and the United Arab Emirates.
The Middle East deal mediated by China raises a political question for Washington. how should he react?
Early signs suggest that while the US will be unwilling to further reduce its regional presence, it will focus more broadly on China’s challenges to American interests and those of its allies around the world.
While officials publicly shrugged off concerns about the Saudi-Iran deal, President Joe Biden joined British and Australian leaders on Monday in publicly concluding the so-called AUKUS partnership to provide Australia with new nuclear-powered submarines as a counterweight to China. an increasingly assertive naval presence.
As for the Middle East, Mr. Biden wants to put meat on the bones of his unrealized mantra that Washington and Beijing must bring stability and even cooperation to an inevitably competitive relationship.
Washington’s hope will be that since China now depends on Persia for almost half of its oil imports, it will also want to avoid the instability and conflict that could ensue if Iran goes fully nuclear.