The purpose of this dissertation is to understand and predict the impact of a weakened or weakened Liberal International Order on the propensity, frequency, and intensity of conflict. To do this, I first conduct a comprehensive literature review of international relations theories, selected economic theories, and other political science writings to identify what promotes order, what undermines it, and what perpetuates order.
What promotes order? Order Origins and LIO Benefits
What weakens LIO? nationalism and distorted perceptions of costs, benefits and risks
Why LIO works and why weakening LIO will lead to higher conflict PIIs; formal modeling
Why would weakening the LIO lead to more mutilations (or higher conflict PIIs); An agent-based model
Summary of findings, implications, and recommendations for the real world
This paper was submitted as a dissertation in June 2022 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the PhD in Public Policy Analysis at the RAND Graduate School of Purdue. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Dr. Angel O’Mahony (Leader), Dr. Matthew Lewis, Dr. Aaron Frank, and external reader Dr. Brad Roberts.
This publication is part of the RAND Corporation Dissertation Series. Pardee RAND dissertations are produced by graduates of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world’s leading producer of Ph.D.’s in policy analysis. Dissertations are supervised, reviewed, and approved by a Pardee RAND faculty committee that oversees each dissertation.
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