Ukraine Russia war latest news: Putin and Wagner group reach ‘boiling point’ in Bakhmut rivalry

Tensions between the Russian ministry of defence and the rebel Wagner group has likely reached a “boiling point” in their rivalry over Bakhmut, the Institute of War has said.

The city in Donetsk Oblast, which has been the site of bloody contention for several weeks, serves as a symbolic stepping stone for Moscow to push forward in its invasion.

According to IoW analysis, the Russian MoD is trying to “deliberately expend both elite and convict Wagner forces in Bakhmut in an effort to weaken Prigozhin and derail his ambitions for greater influence in the Kremlin”.

The analysis continued: “The Russian MoD is currently prioritizing eliminating Wagner on the battlefields in Bakhmut, which is likely slowing down the rate of advance in the area.

“Prigozhin saw Bakhmut as an opportunity to gain leverage on the Russian MoD and likely in the Kremlin in pursuit of his own commercial and political aspirations.

“Putin used Wagner to protect his regime from detrimental societal ramifications of mobilization, which also continues to inhibit his war efforts in Ukraine.”

One of Russian president Vladimir Putin‘s top allies claimed the United States and Britain were secretly sowing a lie that a pro-Ukrainian group blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines on the bed of the Baltic Sea last year.

Last week The New York Times reported that intelligence reviewed by US officials suggested that a pro-Ukraine group – likely comprised of Ukrainians or Russians – attacked the pipelines in September.

Russian Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev cast doubt on that report, questioning if such a group would have the capability to carry out such a daring act of sabotage on Russia’s most important energy corridors to Europe.

“In an attempt to cover up the true people behind the crime, pro-government Anglo-Saxon media, on orders from above, have named a culprit – a group of Ukrainian terrorists,” Mr Patrushev told the Argumenti i Fakti newspaper.

Russia, Patrushev said, still did not know for certain who was behind the attack because it had not been included in an investigation of the blasts.

“If newspapers claim with zeal that the sabotage was committed by a group of Ukrainian terrorists, then it is necessary to ask whether or not there is indeed such a group at all, and if it is capable of carrying this out,” he said.

Both Ukraine and Russia have reported inflicting heavy losses during fierce fighting around the eastern city of Bakhmut – while the International Criminal Court (ICC) is said to be planning to issue arrest warrants against a number of Russians (Chris Stevenson writes).

Commanders on both sides have reported relentless fighting around Bakhmut, which has become the focus of a months-long campaign to take the city in the region of Donetsk which has led to some of the bloodiest fighting since Moscow’s invasion began.

Meanwhile, the prosecutor at the ICC is expected to ask pre-trial judges to approve arrest warrants against Russian individuals relating to the abduction of children from Ukraine to Russia and the targeting of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, according to reports from Reuters and the New York Times. If successful, it will be the first time ICC warrants are issued in relation to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu said relations between Russia and China were crucial to global stability, the Tass news agency reported.

“Bilateral relations between our countries have reached a new, unprecedented level and have become a major factor supporting global stability in the face of increasing geopolitical tensions in the world,” Tass reported Mr Shoigu as saying in a Telegram message to Zhang Youxia, vice chair of China’s Central Military Commission and a close ally of Chinese president Xi Jinping.

Beijing’s top diplomat Wang Yi met Vladimir Putin in Moscow last month, and Mr Xi could travel to Russia as soon as next week for a summit with the Russian president, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

China has not denounced Russia’s invasion like some of its neighbours but has repeatedly called for caution and warned Moscow against using nuclear weapons. Beijing’s calls for peace talks align more closely with Russia’s desire to hold on to territory in Ukraine than Kyiv’s desire for Russian forces to leave its land entirely, given a negotiated settlement would likely require concessions from the invaded party.

Conservative former minister Tobias Ellwood, who chairs the Defence Committee, warned the UK is operating on a “peacetime budget” as a new Cold War approaches.

Mr Ellwood said Brtiain’s UK’s land, sea and air military assets are headed for cuts which “many in the House were hoping would be reversed today”.

Signs have emerged that Britain’s military standing has dropped after years of cuts. In January defence sources revealed that an American general told Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, that the British Army is no longer regarded as a “tier-one” fighting force.

Despite concerns, Britain remains the second biggest donor country to Ukraine after the US, and one of few Nato members to meet the target of spending 2 per cent of GDP on military spending.

But Mr Ellwood, a former army captain, said the threat level was rising beyond the means of Britain’s current forces. He pointed to a review which noted the “risk of escalation is greater than at any time in decades”, adding in the Commons: “We are sliding towards a new Cold War. Threats are increasing but here we are staying on a peacetime budget.

“[Foreign Secretary James Cleverly] has two days before the Budget is announced. Please can we move to 2.5 per cent GDP now.”

Mr Cleverly replied: “We have committed to 2.5 per cent of GDP as a sustainable baseline. We have announced that additional £5bn to address the immediate impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – that is on top of the £20bn uplift that was announced in 2020 and over half-a-billion of new investment that was announced last year.”

A bill that would push back the age of conscription to compulsory service in the Russian military has been put forward in Moscow’s parliament.

The bill, backed by Russian president Vladimir Putin would raise the age boundaries from to 21-30 years from the current 18-27 years.

It would for a time increase the number of men subject to a year’s compulsory service as it sets out a transition period over 2024-2025 when the conscription age will span 10 or 11 years instead of the usual nine.

Mr Putin gave his backing in December to defence ministry proposals to push back the age range.

Defence minister Sergei Shoigu plans to increase the total number of serving combat personnel – professional contract soldiers and conscripts – to 1.5 million from 1.15 million.

Conscripts cannot legally be deployed outside Russia. However, in September Moscow unilaterally annexed four Ukrainian regions where fighting is continuing, and now considers them Russian territory.

Britain cast China as representing an “epoch-defining challenge” to the world order, in an update to its foreign policy framework published on Monday which declared that the UK’s security hinged on the outcome of the Ukraine war.

In the refresh of Britain’s blueprint for security and international policy, the government warned of China’s deepening partnership with Russia, and Moscow’s growing cooperation with Iran following the invasion of Ukraine.

Only first released two years ago, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said Britain’s Integrated Review (IR) had been updated to take account of events, with the hardening of language and positioning towards Beijing and Moscow.

But the decision to still not describe China as a threat was likely to disappoint many in Sunak’s governing Conservative Party, who also believe his vow to spend an extra 5 billion pounds ($6 billion) on defence is insufficient to support Ukraine without leaving Britain vulnerable.

“What could not be fully foreseen in 2021 was the pace of the geopolitical change and the extent of its impact on the UK and our people,” Sunak wrote in a foreword to the IR.

“Since then, Russia‘s illegal invasion of Ukraine, weaponisation of energy and food supplies and irresponsible nuclear rhetoric, combined with China’s more aggressive stance in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, are threatening to create a world defined by danger, disorder and division.”

The unveiling of the update has been choreographed to coincide with Sunak’s visit to San Diego to agree the next steps in a landmark defence agreement, AUKUS, with U.S. President Joe Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese

Of Britain’s extra defence spending, 3 billion pounds will go towards nuclear projects, including help for Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, part of efforts to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.

When it was first published in 2021, the Integrated Review described China as a “systemic competitor” – a term some in Sunak’s party said was mealy-mouthed.

“China under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) poses an epoch-defining and systemic challenge with implications for almost every area of government policy and the everyday lives of British people,” the updated document said.

“It has pursued rapid and opaque military modernisation with huge new investments, militarised disputed islands in the South China Sea, and refused to renounce the use of force to achieve its objectives with regard to Taiwan.”

While it outlined that Britain would step up its national security protections and boost work with partners in the region, the government said its preference remained for better cooperation and understanding with Beijing.

“But we believe that this will depend on the choices China makes, and will be made harder if trends towards greater authoritarianism and assertiveness overseas continue,” it said.

Tony Blair has criticised Rishi Sunak’s lack of influence with Joe Biden – and said he backed the Iraq War to make sure he was the first person the White House phoned in a crisis.

In an interview to mark the upcoming 20th anniversary of the conflict, the former Prime Minister admitted he turned down a last minute offer from President George Bush for British troops not to take part in the war.

He said he was ‘uncomfortable’ about British troops joining the US invasion but went ahead because our special relationship with America would have been wrecked if we had let them fight alone.

Mr Blair defended his conduct, saying that when he was in Downing St he was always the first world leader called on the White House ‘hot line.’

Slovenia’s Prime Minister Robert Golob on Monday urged Bosnia’s leaders to embrace a “historic moment” created by the war in Ukraine and kick off reforms required by the European Union to speed up the Balkan country’s membership process.

Slovenia was the strongest supporter of Bosnia’s bid to become a candidate to join the wealthy 27-member bloc, which was approved in December despite a poor reform record by the ethnically-divided country.

Golob, who chose Sarajevo for his first visit to the Western Balkans region since he assumed the job last year, said Russian aggression towards Ukraine had turned Brussels sceptics into supporters of the EU enlargement process, and that was “historic”.

“For 20 years administrative issues have in reality stopped the enlargement process while today the EU enlargement process has become a political process that we want to take further on,” Golob told a news conference held jointly with Bosnia’s Prime Minister Borjana Kristo.

“Slovenia wants to be not only a friend on that path but the biggest ally, and that is why we shall offer you all possible help, from technical to administrative and financial support,” he said.

Slovenia is among the three top investors in Bosnia, and Golob said its private investors saw great potential in renewable energy sources in the country.

Following its devastating war in the 1990s in which about 100,000 people were killed, Bosnia remains divided ethically and politically among its Serb, Bosniak and Croat groups.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) is expected to seek arrest warrants against Russian individuals in relation to the conflict in Ukraine “in the short term”, a source with knowledge of the matter said on Monday.

The prosecutor of the ICC is expected to ask a pre-trial judge to approve issuing warrants against several Russians for the abduction of children from Ukraine to Russia and the targeting of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, said the source, who commented on condition of anonymity.

It was unclear which Russian individuals the ICC would seek warrants for or exactly when.

The office of the prosecutor at the ICC declined to comment.

ICC prosecutor Karim Khan opened an investigation into possible war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in Ukraine a year ago. He highlighted during three trips to Ukraine that he was looking at alleged crimes against children and the targeting of civilian infrastructure.

Ukraine‘s former prosecutor general in June told Reuters she hoped the ICC would prosecute the child abductions as genocide.

Russia has strongly denied that its forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine. It says it does not deliberately target civilians and has said that it is offering humanitarian aid to those wishing to flee Ukraine voluntarily.